Countdown to the Moon

We will always have problems on earth. “The poor are always with you” It does not mean we should ignore it. We should address it. But that does not mean everything else on earth should be placed on hold. We should explore, discover, create. We have to approach life with balance.

The ice on the poles of the moon is a critical resource. We need to take steps that we preserve it. It would be bad to go to the moon, and do something to waste this resource.

The Outer Space Treaty needs to be rethought. We need to open up the economic forces to move us into space. And this means the ability for countries to claim resources and places off of earth. Yes, we need to protect the rights of countries that will come later. But we need to take a balanced approach.

Maybe we should start with giving every country so much area of the moon for so many years. They can sell their area to another country. But to claim it they must do something with it. Place a lander gives them so much area. A rover can give them more. Humans landing gives them more. A permanent base will give them even more.

Mark and I talked a good amount about the effects of quarantine and Covid19. People are learning how to work online, go to school online, connect with friends online, shop online, and even see the doctor online. This capability will accelerate many of the trends of virtual business displacing physical businesses.

We also did get to talk about NASA’s 2024 moon plans. Mark had heard about it, probably from news relaying the current administration’s goals and objectives. Mark supports exploration. He does not see much value in going back to the moon per se, but supports it for spinoffs of technology, bringing people together to work on a common goal, and how it would support further exploration. And if it were safe and affordable, Mark would go into space. But he would probably not go to Mars.

We talked a little bit about NASA’s current approach with the Human Lander of having companies be responsible for creating the lander and selling the service back to NASA. This is a different approach than what was done in the Apollo program, and it is a different approach than what the US House Science Committee wants to do. They would like to have the traditional approach of having the government define all the requirements, pay a government contractor to build it, and for the government to own it. We know that this approach leads to costly solutions that take longer to build and have very limited use.

Hopefully this new approach, which has had great success in the private sector, will produce great results that will allow for us to continue to use it.

We also talked about this project. Looking at the videos and doing an analysis is something I plan to do. I am thinking the videos will be especially interesting to see a few years from now. What were people thinking and talking about? What were their views of the 2024 moon landing? And to actually see what happens.

Rajan lives in Pakistan and is a mechanical engineer. He mainly works on design HVAC units. He had heard about NASA’s plans to go to the moon. He supports exploration. And if he could, he would go into space.

Our connection was not good. I am really looking forward to SpaceX Starlink becoming operational and being in widespread use. Starlink can allow for us to connect with people all over the world with high speed internet.

Great talk with Arfan. He is a veterinarian in Pakistan. He works for a company that produces feed for chickens.

He was aware of NASA 2024 plans to land people on the moon. He had heard about it from friends. But most of the people I have interviewed had not heard of it. And it is very possible that people might pay more attention if we were sending a dog to the moon. Of course, they might seriously ask questions about why we are doing that.

But how long would it be before we start sending pets and bigger animals than mice into space? A pet could provide much comfort to astronauts on a 6 month voyage to Mars. Also, at some point we will be creating permanently crewed facilities on the moon and on Mars and beyond. At some point those facilities will have families. And eventually those families will have pets. I am willing to wager that there will be pets in space in the next 20 years (so by 2040 we will have dogs, cats, hamsters, etc. in space).

Arfan is supportive of exploration. But we need to figure out how to live in peace with each other here on earth. How do we promote understanding. The internet can help like minded people across the world to band together for common causes. But not everyone has access to the internet. And in China the internet is censored to help support the state government. How can we have world peace if we can not have open and truthful conversations across the world.

And space is going to make it much harder for governments to control what their people see online. Starlink may be the way that we free people in China. It will be nearly impossible to monitor every roof top and to stop Starlink from every house.

In order for the people of the world to be at peace with each other, they need to be free.

Alan Ladwig is no stranger to the idea of people travelling into space. Not just astronauts, but everyday people and people like Teachers, Journalists, Artists, and others. He has been an observer, promoter, and enabler of this enthusiasm for personal space travel. One example he gives is Pan American World Airways’ “First Moon Flights” club which began in 1964. This was the list of people that would hopefully start taking flights to the moon in 2000. Before the program ended in 1972 more than 93,000 people joined the waiting list. Back in the 1960s through the 1980s it appeared that all of us would be able to take flights into space. It was only a matter of time.

His book “See You In Orbit” chronicles his experience regarding personal space flight. With his knowledge and experience at NASA and from outside of NASA he brings an unique perspective. I highly recommend it for anyone that dreams of going to space. (And for those who seek to understand those of us that do.)

In the 1980s Alan ran the Spaceflight Participant Program that selected the first Teacher to travel on the Space Shuttle. With the Challenger disaster, the program was cancelled. But was in the process of selecting a journalist. And would later select an artist. The DearMoon project plans to send a group of artists around the moon in 2023.

There is still strong enthusiasm for space travel. The Mars One program demonstrated that many people would be willing to make a one way trip to Mars (though I sometimes one if the couple of months of quarantine for Covid19 might have given them an idea of what being in a small vehicle for the 6 months travel might be like, and might have dissuaded some of them.) But I think the the enthusiasm for space travel has changed somewhat. Most of the people I have interviewed have expressed interest in travelling to space. But there have been some notable exceptions. Consider the interview with daughter Jordan (18) and mother Nicole (40s). Nicole would go into space, but Jordan has no interest.

But in my 135 interviews I have done so far, I would say that only 15 or so knew about NASA’s plans to go to the moon. Most people had not heard about it but were supportive when they found out. What should NASA be doing differently? The media landscape is completely different than in 1969 when Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landed on the moon. Then there were few media outlets and everyone received the same news from them. Today, everyone gets a personalized news feed. If the platform thinks you are interested in space, then you see the latest space news. If it doesn’t then you see other things. This is true for Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and many other ways that you get news. If you are not a space person, then you are probably more likely to learn about space from a friend than from an online source. (Space people, do your friends know that NASA is going to the moon in 2024?)

Alan would like to see the 2024 date happen, but he has been in aerospace for over 40 years and he knows that it is more likely that schedules get pushed out. Dates are seldom made.

But today NASA took a big step towards its moon plans. It selected three teams to develop a Human Lunar Lander. The teams are lead by Blue Origin, Dynetics, and SpaceX. These teams are taking different approaches. And SpaceX has been making very quick, visible progress with Starship in Boca Chica, TX.

Regardless of what happens, I plan to conduct interviews up to the end of 2024, one per day. And I hope to spread the word, get different perspectives, refine my own views. Ad Astra!

Be careful what you call impossible. In the 19th century, no one would guess that a person sitting in Houston, TX, USA would be able to have a real-time, video conversation with a person in Lahore, Pakistan. Yet, today we do that and think nothing of it.

Elon Musk wants to build a city on Mars. Seems like it is impossible today. But in a decade or two will we see the beginnings of it. And in a century will it be something that we all take for granted? “Of course, we have a city on Mars. We have always had a city on Mars.” Might seem as certain as there being a New York or a Las Vegas. Not really something that could be believed a thousand years ago, yet here we are.

Jeff Bezos wants to develop space to protect the earth. It is hard to imagine moving all our energy production into space… He wants to move mining and heavy manufacturing off of the earth. Anything that harms the earth should be done some place else. It seems impossible now. But I imagine all those “Made In China” labels would have been unbelievable a hundred years ago. Maybe we will see a “Made On The Moon” label at some point.

We can create a hopeful and amazing future for humanity. We just need to focus on actions that take us in that direction. We need to change the way we think and the way that we approach our existence on earth.

Do your part!

Blake had heard we were going back to the moon, but he had not heard about the timing. The Covid19 Quarantine and the related economic and societal repercussions are making us reconsider everything. If you asked him two months ago about going back to the moon, he would be all for it. But considering the situation that we are in now, maybe our focus should be getting people back on our feet.

“Why are we going back?” There is a strategic reason go back. The poles of the moon contain water ice which will be a key resource as we branch out and explore more of the solar system. China knows it is a key resource and is working on exploring it. One school of thought is that we need to get there first to help secure it for ourselves and the free world. But this is like securing patches of oil in the 1700s before we started really using it. And it might be difficult to get people to truly appreciate how strategic of a resource it is.

Another reason for us to go back is to study the record of meteor impacts on the moon. Meteors are constantly impacting the earth. But most of them burn up in the atmosphere are land in the ocean. The ones that do impact dry areas get weathered over. What is the frequency of impacts? What are the sizes of these meteors? What are they generally made of? Being able to answer these questions will help us understand how likely it is that the earth might be hit by a civilization changing meteor. Also, knowing what they are made of will give us more ideas on how to protect the earth.

Rare earth metals are a resource that is very limited. Deposits are mainly in China. But they are not actually “earth” metals at all. They come from meteors. We potentially have a huge supply just waiting for us to use.

And there are many more reasons we are going back that Blake and I didn’t get into. The first woman on the moon. Radio astronomy on the far side of the moon. The human desire to explore and discover new things.

Would Blake have an interest in going into space if it were safe and affordable? You bet! How safe? Well, 100 people going first would be fine.